无耻家庭Afghanistan 'Battle Was Lost From Beginning' Built on US Desire to Reshape World in Own Image: Prof_我的网站
A | 行情回顾及主要观点： 上周A股市场整体呈现调整趋势：沪深300跌1.01%，中证500跌1.70%，中证1000跌2.16%，创业板50上周跌2.09%，科创50跌3.73%。
B | On a balmy summer day in mid-August of 2021, the 20-year US-led nation-building project in Afghanistan came to an abrupt end. Following a 10-day blitzkrieg offensive in which the Taliban* captured 32 of the country’s 34 provinces with little resistance, the militants encircled and then entered Kabul and caused its government to flee, all while US and coalition forces, diplomats, and intelligence agents were still evacuating.,Afghanistan has been mired in foreign-backed civil conflict for generations, with the US-led invasion of the country in 2001 ensuing 23 years after the CIA kicked off Operation Cyclone - a covert action involving the deployment of jihadist fighters and tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and cash to Afghanistan to fight a fledgling Soviet-backed government.,“We have to look at the history – the United States created the Afghan mujahedeen against the Soviet Union, when the Soviet Union came to help Afghanistan…That Islamic fundamentalism which includes Taliban, Mujahideen, ISIS [Daesh]** and others was created by the West,” says Dr. Zalmay Gulzad, a specialist on Afghan politics and professor of social sciences at Harold Washington College in Chicago.,WorldA Tale of Two Withdrawals: Why Soviet and US Pull-Outs From Afghanistan Were So Different18 August 2021, 04:00 GMT,In the mid-1990s, a few years after the end of the Cold War, Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, boasted that the overarching goal of the US project in Afghanistan was to “make the Soviets bleed for as much and as long as is possible,” and to coordinate with the intelligence services from the UK, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries to make this happen.,Over four decades on, this strategy remains central to Washington’s calculations, Dr. Gulzad says, comparing US attempts to now use the Taliban to stir up trouble along Russia’s soft underbelly in Central Asia to the NATO proxy conflict against Moscow in Ukraine. Iran is another major target of US geopolitical ambitions, and Washington would like to play on the differences between the Sunni Taliban and the Shia Iranian state to “create problems” for the Islamic Republic, the academic argues.,Taliban Promise Safety for Resistance Leaders Including Ahmad Massoud as They Meet in Tehran10 January, 13:57 GMT,Graveyard of Empires,Brown University’s Costs of War project has calculated that the War in Afghanistan cost the United States alone more than $2.3 trillion, equivalent to $300 million per day for nearly 20 straight years. Notwithstanding the extravagant spending, and the rotational deployment of over 800,000 US troops and tens of thousands of personnel from over three dozen allied nations over the past generation, the Afghanistan project, once described by Harvard academic and chickenhawk Michael Ignatieff as a “humanitarian” “nation-building lite” adventure, has failed spectacularly.,The causes are legion, ranging from the pervasive corruption of Afghanistan’s political institutions and security structures (whose true fragility was demonstrated in August 2021), to the coalition’s tolerance for and even cooperation with unsavory warlords, drug traffickers, and even child sex criminals, and the imperious nature of the Western-backed project itself.,“It was a lost battle from the beginning,” says Dr. Swasti Rao, an associate fellow at the Europe and Eurasia Center at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.,US 'Lost Track' of Afghan War Aims, Says Retired Marine General12 August, 17:00 GMT,“One of the problems with the US is that it wishes to see the entire world in its own mirror image, what is called the liberal world order comprising of free market and democracy. This approach has a problem when enforced top down without taking account the regional and grassroots realities, cultural sensibilities of the people at hand. The government of Ashraf Ghani was never a popular government with massive charges of corruption that the Afghan people did not identify with,” Rao explains.,The researcher noted that all around the world, but in West Asia in particular, the “project of the liberal order of which the US considers itself a custodian” has met with failure.,“After 20 years, about $2.5 trillion and the lives of its citizens and soldiers, the US realized that retreating is the best possible decision, something they had been planning for a long time,” Rao says.,Challenges, Opportunities,A year on from Kabul’s fall, the situation in Afghanistan is unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous, both for ordinary Afghans and for countries in the region.,“After one year of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover, it is Afghans who are suffering more than any other regional or extra-regional states,” says Shreyas Deshmukh, a researcher with the National Security Program at Delhi Policy Group, an India-based think tank.,“Now it is evident that the Taliban has not given up its extremist tendencies and will continue to stick with its interpretation of the extremist Sharia-based governance model. They do not have any concrete ideas to govern the state because [the Taliban] is a primarily insurgent organization. Therefore, anti-social elements including other terrorist organizations, drug lords, and human traffickers [have been] taking advantage of this vacuum. During the initial months after the Taliban takeover, the level of violence was reduced but now there is an uptick, as anti-Taliban forces are regrouping,” Deshmukh notes.,AfghanistanTaliban Militants Fire Into Air to Disperse Women's Protest in Kabul - Videos13 August, 07:44 GMT,The researcher points to an important dilemma for the Taliban: whether to make concessions on its governance model in exchange for cooperation with, assistance from, and possible recognition from other countries. Such a decision, Deshmukh notes, would carry with it the risk of heightening divisions within the Taliban’s ranks and even raise the possibility of their government’s collapse and renewed civil war. “On the contrary, if they implement a strict interpretation of Sharia law while going against international norms then the country will once again become a haven for terrorist organizations,” he warns.,Dr. Rao concurs with this pessimistic appraisal of Afghanistan’s internal situation, noting that while the Taliban proved capable of taking over from the Western-backed government, “they do not know how to engage in governance per se, let alone [create an] inclusive government with minorities and women. It’s been a year of denial of women’s rights, media crackdown, and retaliatory killings amid mass hunger. Especially with the Taliban bringing back the feared Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, enforcing the group’s austere interpretation of Islam, it is more unlikely that women or minorities might have a say in the government any time in the foreseeable future,” he says.,Worse yet, Rao says, if the situation continues to fester, it will cause “even more unrest, drugs and illegal weapons smuggling, bloody fights between various fundamentalist groups like ISIS-K and the Taliban; in short a situation that will remain a regional security [concern] with uncontrolled global ramifications.”,The scholar emphasizes that the international community has asked the Taliban to form an inclusive government, ensure the rights of women and minorities, and guarantee that Afghanistan will no longer serve as a launch pad for global terror operations. “Unless that happens, the trade or investment promised by China will not flow. It is important to note that even Russia and China, which share a better equation with the Taliban compared to the Western world, have not recognized their government,” Rao believes.,WorldLithium, Gold & Rare Earths: How China May Open the Door to New Business Opportunities for Afghans19 August 2021, 08:38 GMT,At the same time, the researcher notes that although the US withdrawal exacerbated regional chaos, landed sophisticated weapons in Taliban hands, and created a regional power vacuum, it also “created space for countries like Russia, China and Iran to play a far more decisive role in the region,” as Washington shifted its attention to Eastern Europe and China.,Deshmukh concurs. “The Taliban is not a designated terrorist organization by many states including the US. However, its leadership is under UNSC and US sanctions. The real question is, will the countries recognize the Taliban regime in the near future? China, Pakistan, Russia, and Qatar have given some signals that they might recognize the regime. However, it remains a risky business considering that the Taliban is continuing close cooperation with terrorist organizations like AQ, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Many of their leaders have taken safe haven in Afghanistan.”,“No country would like to align itself with this regime and recognize them, for now. Meanwhile, they will continue to engage with the Taliban to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghans, keep a tab on terrorist elements which could threaten the national interest of those countries, and further to reap some economic benefits from Afghanistan,” Deshmukh concludes.,* A group under United Nations sanctions for terrorist activities.,** A terrorist group outlawed in Russia and many other countries.。
C | 交易面，A股市场日均成交额在2.17万亿左右，流动性回落。产业层面，光通信板块上周迎来多重催化：美国ITI正式反对FCC将光模块列入限制清单，外部恐慌情绪逐步消解；中际旭创半年报营收417.78亿元（同比+182.49%）、净利136.51亿元（同比+241.70%）；新易盛推出激进股权激励，营收目标跳升至千亿级，释放高增长强信心。建议继续关注重仓AI算力、半导体设备、新能源电池等核心科技龙头的创业板50指数。 创业板为成长型创新创业企业提供直接融资平台。权重行业方面，创业板50指数聚焦信息技术+新能源+金融科技+医药四大新质生产力赛道，科技成长属性纯粹。
D | 图：创业板50指数四大赛道 数据来源：Wind，华安基金，截至2026-8-21 创业板50指数：追“光”识“新”更掘“金”。横向对比来看，创业板50指数的光模块含量、新能源电池含量以及金融科技含量优于创业板指以及主流宽基指数。
E | 创业板50ETF华安（159949）：汇聚创业板优势领域白马，聚焦高科技成长属性的龙头企业，近六年ROE水平保持15%~19%高位，对比其他主流宽基指数优势突出，2025/2026Q1归母净利润增速高达21.58%/42.38%。当前估值35.08倍，近十年30.62%分位（数据来源：Wind，截至2026-8-21）。 创业板50指数（399673.SZ）权重行业观点： 上周通信板块有三件大事值得关注。一是上周美国信息科技产业委员会（ITI）正式向美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）表达“反对FCC将光模块列入限制清单”，ITI特别强调，光模块对数据中心建设具有关键作用，一旦供应链受到扰动，将直接影响美国数据中心的部署进度乃至美国AI的整体竞争力。
F | 当前光模块领域美国对中国的依赖远大于中国对相关管制的忌惮，FCC管制预期带来的恐慌情绪正逐步消解，有望推动光通信板块情绪修复。
G | 二是光模块龙头中际旭创交出亮眼半年报，上半年实现营业收入417.78亿元，同比增长182.49%；归母净利润136.51亿元，同比增长241.70%，拟每10股派发现金红利12元。1.6T硅光模块进入规模放量阶段成为收入增长核心，且在手订单已覆盖2026全年并延伸至2027年，公司同步推进NPO/XPO/CPO/OCS等下一代光互连技术布局。 三是新易盛抛出激进股权激励计划，拟向不超过961名激励对象授予限制性股票总量648.12万股，授予价格为212元/股，约为最新收盘价的50%。业绩考核目标从百亿级直接跳升至千亿级：2026—2028年营收目标分别不低于500亿元、累计不低于1400亿元、累计不低于2900亿元，释放出对未来三年高增长的强信心。 建议长期持续关注光模块、光器件及CPO产业链，创业板50指数含“光”量达30%，远高于其余主流宽基指数。（以上个股仅作示例，不作为投资建议） 上周新能源电池板块随大盘高位震荡。
H | 碳酸锂价格企稳反弹——8月以来主力合约从约13.5万元/吨升至近15.9万元/吨、月内最高涨逾17%，本质是对明年过度悲观需求预期的集中修复，叠加锂盐厂集中检修、津巴布韦锂精矿到港不及预期与库存连续十余周去化的供给偏紧支撑。产业数据来看，8月头部电池企业排产环比大幅提升，行业开工率普遍超85%、头部企业满负荷生产并启动外协，Q2业绩延续向上、9-10月旺季临近。锂电消费税落地扰动，自2026年9月1日起对锂离子电池按2%税率征收消费税（2027年9月升至4%，钠电/固态电池继续免征），亿纬锂能等已宣布9月起内销电池涨价约2%、多家产业链企业发布5%–30%调价公告，市场关注成本传导与顺价能力，机构普遍认为对行业整体盈利影响有限、反而利于落后产能出清与份额向龙头集中。
I | 此外，2026世界动力电池大会将于9月3–4日在四川宜宾举办，产业催化预期升温。（以上个股仅作示例，不作为投资建议） 上周电子板块有所调整，但产业端催化密集。长江存储科创板IPO正式获上交所受理，计划募资330亿元，2026年一季度营收470.42亿元、归母净利润333.79亿元，全球NAND Flash厂商按出货量排名已升至全球第三、中国第一，有望带动上游设备、材料、封测等产业链协同受益。兆易创新半年报业绩爆发，上半年营收115.66亿元（同比+178.67%），归母净利润68.57亿元（同比+1091.50%），存储景气持续改善正加速向利润端传导。板块短期调整不改AI算力与国产化两条产业主线，存储芯片景气上行、先进制程突破与国产存储龙头资本化三重逻辑共振，电子板块中长期配置价值依然突出。（以上个股仅作示例，不作为投资建议） 创业板50ETF华安（代码：159949）简介： 创业板50ETF华安跟踪创业板50指数，指数选取创业板市场知名度较高、流动性和市值居前的50家企业，当前主要涵盖通信、电子、新能源电池、互联网金融、生物医药等五大优势科技赛道龙头，投资价值相对较高。
J | 创业板50ETF华安（代码：159949）流动性充足，过去一年日均成交额21.11亿元，排名深交所ETF前列。该指数基金最新规模248.32 亿元，是市场上跟踪创业板相关指数较大的基金之一。 创业板50ETF华安（159949）上周表现：交易代码基金名称净值规模（亿元）上周日均成交额（亿元）159949华安创业板50ETF1.6766248.3217.98 数据来源：Wind，华安基金，2026-8-17至2026-8-21 风险提示：以上仅为标的指数当前成份股分布的客观介绍，不构成任何投资建议，不作为投资收益的保证。
K | 指数公司后续可能对指数编制方案进行调整，指数成份股的构成和权重可能会动态变化，请关注部分指数成份股权重较大、集中度较高的风险。 本基金属于股票型基金，属于较高风险、较高预期收益的基金品种，主要投资于标的指数成份股及备选成份股，其联接基金主要通过投资目标ETF紧密跟踪标的指数的表现。本基金预期收益与风险高于货币市场基金、债券型基金与混合型基金，具有与标的指数相似的风险收益特征。
L | ：基金管理公司不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。基金产品收益存在波动风险，投资需谨慎，详情请认真阅读本基金的基金合同、招募说明书等基金法律文件。责任编辑：杨红卜。 Current article:http://6b1f32.shuicengchongmingnouhuawang.bond/f9uuztw/20260826/39889.html Published on:03:27:20 |
